Ferrablog

Kevin Drum sums up how badly things are going in Iraq, and comes to this conclusion:

The most likely endpoint is this: in the short term a UN-brokered political settlement, and in the longer term an Islamic theocracy headed in the background by Sistani, with Chalabi pulling strings at his side and Muqtada (or his clones) keeping anti-American sentiment burning in the foreground. Chalabi will sell us out in a second if he needs to, Sistani will gradually lose influence, and before long Iraq will probably bear more resemblance to Iran than to Egypt. Or perhaps the West Bank if American troops remain.

And the United States will end up in a worse position than when we started, our foreign policy in hock to the UN and a group of Islamic theocrats.

Maybe that would have happened no matter what. I don't know. But there's not much question that in this universe we ended up where we did because George Bush wasn't willing to take the political risks needed to win this war. And he still isn't.

So I'll end this post with my usual question to the hawks: why are you supporting this guy? Sure, he talks a good game, but in the real world he's betrayed everything you wanted out of simple political cowardice. Why does he retain your loyalty when he's made it so plain that he has neither a realistic plan to win the war nor the political will to see it through?

Iraq is a self-inflicted wound, which makes it all the more troublesome. The Democrats generally run on domestic issues, but if nothing else, a change to John Kerry is needed to just to give our country some credibility on the world stage again. History will not judge the George W. Bush presidency kindly, and four more years of it is just too troubling to think about.

That's the song played at the Ice Palace St. Pete Times Forum whenever Marty St. Louis scores, and we'll be singing it all night as the presumptive MVP blasted a rolling puck over the right shoulder of Rick DiPietro 4:07 into OT to give the Lightning a 3-2 win over the Islanders and a 4-1 series win. Freddy Modin set up all three Lightning goals, and leads all playoff scorers with eight points.

Aside from a lousy first period, the Lightning took the play to the Isles tonight, eventually grabbing a 2-1 lead after 2 on goals by Tim Taylor and Ruslan Fedotenko. But the Isles tied it in the third on a nifty redirect by Mark Parrish, who was otherwise frustrated by Khabibulin all series. That set up OT and St. Louis' game and series winner.

Interestingly, the only other playoff series won by the Lightning came on a St. Louis OT goal as well, in Game 6 last season at Washington. So who do they get next? If all the teams with three wins in the East playoffs right now hold on, they'll play Toronto. Otherwise, it could be Montreal, Jersey or Ottawa. They will NOT play Philly or Boston if either of those teams advance.

Corey Stillman and Jassen Cullimore stayed out with their "upper body" injuries. In the playoffs, specific injury information is withheld by the teams so as not to give opponents any edge, so we get generic "upper body" and "lower body" injuries. By taking the series in five, the Lightning will get some extra time off for these guys to mend. Stillman, in particular, was missed tonight, especially when the Lightning went 0-for-5 on the power play in the first 22 minutes of the game.

As an Isles fan as well, I'm sorry to seem them out, but not at the expense of the Lightning. This makes three consecutive first-round exits for the Islanders. Granted, making three playoffs in a row is a bit of an accomplishment after an eight-year absence, but by now they have to be grumbling on the Island and it'll be interesting to see what they do in the offseason. At least they've been better than the Rangers lately.

Only two prime time appearances, coming off a 7-9 season: a Sunday night tilt in Oakland, when the Bucs face Warren Sapp and the Raiders, and a Monday night game in St. Louis, always a good Monday night matchup.

The Bucs open at Washington, close at Arizona, but play five of their six division games in the second half of the season, including four of the last six weeks. They don't even play Carolina until November 28, which is Week 12. Four of the first six games are on the road. Other than that, nothing too remarkable. It's hard to gauge how tough a schedule this is since in the NFL, there isn't a lot of year-to-year consistency.

The Lightning are now up 3 games to 1 on the Islanders, thanks to another 3-0 win tonight in Game 4 of their opening round playoff series. Khabibulin stoned the Isles again, although except for some late first and early second period sustained pressure, he had an easier time of it than in Games 1 and 3. Nevertheless, it's his third shutout of the series already, and he has to be considered the early frontrunner for the Conn Smythe Trophy.

The first two Lightning goals were sweet. Marty St. Louis, who led the NHL in shorthanded goals this year, notched his first of the playoffs, stealing the puck from Kenny Jonsson at the Islander blue line, turning him inside out, and then going 5-hole on Rick DiPietro. A truly outstanding individual effort. The second goal came on a well-executed 2-on-1 late in the second, when Brad Richards slid a perfect pass to Ruslan Fedotenko, who one-timed a shot past the out-of-position DiPietro. Freddy Modin added the last goal off a 3-on-2, with a blistering slapshot that DiPietro fanned on with his glove.

The defense in front of Habby was outstanding again, and thanks to Nolan Pratt, who filled in for the injured Jasson Cullimore, it didn't miss a beat. The Isles got chippy late in the game, due to obvious frustration, with Steve Webb and Trent Hunter taking cheap shot penalties. Islander coach Steve Stirling decided to play Webb most of the last ten minutes, definitely trying to send a sign. The most amusing part of the night was the disgruntled Islander home crowd, who relentlessly booed and threw playoff rally towels onto the ice as their team dropped two home games by a combined score of 6-0.

The Lightning can wrap it up Friday night in Tampa. I wonder what the odds are that it ends up 3-0.

Brilliant piece in Slate about the alternative minimum tax (AMT). Bush and the Republicans, in all of their tax-cutting zeal, have been strangely muted on fixing the AMT, which is now snaring many more folks than it was originally intended to. Here's a possible reason why:

The AMT seems designed to snare people who earn between $200,000 and $500,000; who work in fields like finance and technology; and who live in places where property taxes and state and local income taxes are high, like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, California, and Oregon—states that are resolutely Democratic.

If AMT was substantially reduced, or eliminated, then Bush would either have to scale back his current tax cuts, or see the deficit balloon even higher. In other words, don't hold your breath for AMT relief.

Obviously, I'd be one of the last people to give an unbiased, dispassionate critique of the President's news conference performance last night. But even after the usual lowering of the bar (to a level of, say, Peter Dinklage at a limbo contest) for his performances, last night was still painful to watch. Tom Shales captured it best in the Washington Post:

One reporter even asked Bush if what we had here was a failure to communicate. Had he not clearly articulated his intentions to the American people? "Gosh, I don't know," Bush said in what seemed an unguarded, honest moment.

Bush similarly struggled, a few minutes earlier, to cite the single biggest mistake of his presidency. He looked baffled and incredulous. "I'm sure something will pop into my head here," he said, noting the intense "pressure" of holding a news conference on TV. Of course people watching throughout the country expect a president to be able to handle that kind of pressure without blinking, based on the assumption that this is one of the milder forms of pressure that come with the office.

Earlier still, Bush stopped in mid-answer and for a few seconds appeared to have lost his train of thought. Looking anxious, he fell back on phrases and thoughts he'd used earlier, saying he and the world changed after 9/11, which was a truism, and that in the 21st century, America is no longer protected by the oceans on either side. But that's been true since the invention of nuclear weapons and of missiles to deliver them from halfway around the world.

After being asked about why it was necessary to have Cheney present when he meets with the 9/11 commission, his answer was on the level of "homina, homina". It also seemed at times that he might have had a small transmitter in his ear and was being fed lines, as he'd flounder for a moment, then suddenly forcefully state a talking point. Of course, that may also be the way his brain works. His father wasn't exactly Clintonesque in his articulation either, but usually made sense and made a point in most instances.

I'm not sure anyone will possibly care about this, but as a self-proclaimed weather geek (the first I've copped to this here on the blog), I feel compelled to note that there was an interesting weather phenomemon today that caused some damage in the area, mainly just south of the immediate Tampa Bay area in Sarasota and Venice.

Typically, severe winds are found in connection with either a very large or very strong area of low pressure, or with a severe thunderstorm. Normally, one does not associate severe winds with the ending of large area of light rain followed by clearing. But on rare occasions, such an event does occur, and it's called a "wake low" or "gravity wave". There's an interesting paper on the phenomenon here, and what was described there as occuring in Mississippi occurred today, as sudden sustained winds of 35-40 MPH with gusts of 60-65 MPH developed along the west central Florida coastline today, taking the roof off a Best Western hotel in Venice and causing substantial damage elsewhere.

First off, for those wondering why there was no blog of Saturday's Game 2, I had to leave for dinner immediately after the game, got back late, and just wasn't inspired to write about it. For those following the series solely from this blog (ha), the Lightning fell 3-0 in a completely uninspired performance. Unlike Game 1, where Khabibulin stole it for the Lightning, Rick DiPietro was good but didn't have to be great in the nets for the Islanders.

Anyway, back to the Island for Game 3, and the Lightning struck (a cliched verb for them, I know) twice early, Brad Richards redirecting one past DiPietro, who accidentally ended up dragging it into his own goal, and a nice shot from the hashmarks by Marty St. Louis after a nifty behind the goal pass from Brad Richards, and they made the two early first period goals stand up for the duration, with St. Louis adding an empty-netter to give the Lightning a 3-0 win and 2-1 series lead.

It was obviously all Lightning for the first 10 minutes, but for the next 30 it was all Islanders, and Khabibulin was brilliant again. Not otherworldy like Game 1, but damn impressive nonetheless. Mark Parrish has to be the most frustrated hockey player on the planet at the moment, being robbed several more times tonight. The Lightning found their bearings in the third, and played a solid defensive period, doing a good job of keeping the puck as much as possible in the Islander zone.

So they've regained home ice, and still have yet to put 60 minutes of solid hockey together, which (I guess) bodes well for the rest of the series. Some interesting notes of trivia. Aside from the fact that tonight was the third 3-0 scoreline in the three games of the series to date, with the win the Lightning go to 4-0 in club history in Games 3 of playoff series. They beat Philly in 1996 on Alexander Selivanov's OT goal to briefly go up 2-1 in that series; took Washington in OT behind Vinny Lecavalier's goal to pull back from the 0-2 abyss in their opening round series against the Caps last season, and got their sole win in the Jersey conference semifinal 4-3 as well.

Game 4 is Wednesday night at Uniondale, NY.