Ferrablog

The daily Rasmussen tracking poll now has Kerry up 47-43 over Bush, marking three straight days for Kerry over Bush by at least three points. (The day-to-day swings in this poll have been notorious, but a trend for three straight days has some significance.) With the election six months out, the current poll has little intrinsic value, but it should lay to rest all of the claims that either Kerry is imploding, or that he's waited too long to run those biographical ads, or that Bush has "defined" him with the negative ad barrage than ran throughout April.

Speaking of the biographical ads, they've just started airing (saw one on TV for the first time last night during "NYPD Blue" here in battleground Florida), and presumably aren't being reflected yet in this Kerry "surge".