Wednesday, October 20, 2004
Early election prediction time.
I'm still proud of my election-eve prediction in 2000 (Gore 48.4, Bush 48.2, Nader 2.8 - actual numbers Gore 48.4, Bush 47.9, Nader 2.7), which can be documented here and here. I only was wrong on three states in the EC (I had NM and WV in the wrong columns, but they were a wash), giving Gore a 271-267 win (my second post linked got the EC math wrong when I flipped TN & IA), with the key difference being I had New Hampshire going to Gore and not Bush, which meant Bush won 271-267. (Technically, Bush won 271-266, as one of the DC electors abstained in protest). Even my comment about absentee ballots putting Bush over the top in Florida seemed eerily prescient. I should have gone to the track that day.
Anyway, the odds are that I won't come that close to accurately predicting the outcome again, but that won't stop me from trying, some 13 days out. So here goes:
Popular vote:
Kerry 50.2
Bush 48.3
Nader 0.9
Others 0.6
Electoral College:
First off, thanks to reapportionment, the states Bush won in 2000 would give him a 278-260 edge. These states will change from Bush to Kerry in 2004: Florida 27, Ohio 20, and New Hampshire 4, giving Kerry a 311-227 Electoral College win. I do not see Bush picking up any Gore 2000 states.
Based on the popular vote spread above, I may be a bit conservative with Kerry's total, as I'm also tempted to add Nevada to Kerry's list, worth another 5 votes. Other states I would not be shocked to see go Kerry's way: West Virginia, Virginia, and Colorado, although I think CO is trending a bit away from him now. If a Kerry tsunami hits the polls, I could also see him nabbing Arizona, North Carolina and even perhaps Missouri and/or Tennessee.
In the best-case Bush scenario that I see, he could end up with a near-tie (or even slight win) in the popular vote, and hold on to Florida. He might poach Iowa from Kerry as well. But this would make it 277-261 Kerry, which is why I think it's more likely that Bush wins the popular vote and Kerry wins the College, rather than the other way around.
I think Pennsylvania is solidly in Kerry's column, and Ohio is all but there as well. Bush is polling a consistent 47 in Ohio, and Nader is not on the ballot. Florida is truly up in the air at this point, but it probably doesn't matter.
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Anyway, the odds are that I won't come that close to accurately predicting the outcome again, but that won't stop me from trying, some 13 days out. So here goes:
Popular vote:
Kerry 50.2
Bush 48.3
Nader 0.9
Others 0.6
Electoral College:
First off, thanks to reapportionment, the states Bush won in 2000 would give him a 278-260 edge. These states will change from Bush to Kerry in 2004: Florida 27, Ohio 20, and New Hampshire 4, giving Kerry a 311-227 Electoral College win. I do not see Bush picking up any Gore 2000 states.
Based on the popular vote spread above, I may be a bit conservative with Kerry's total, as I'm also tempted to add Nevada to Kerry's list, worth another 5 votes. Other states I would not be shocked to see go Kerry's way: West Virginia, Virginia, and Colorado, although I think CO is trending a bit away from him now. If a Kerry tsunami hits the polls, I could also see him nabbing Arizona, North Carolina and even perhaps Missouri and/or Tennessee.
In the best-case Bush scenario that I see, he could end up with a near-tie (or even slight win) in the popular vote, and hold on to Florida. He might poach Iowa from Kerry as well. But this would make it 277-261 Kerry, which is why I think it's more likely that Bush wins the popular vote and Kerry wins the College, rather than the other way around.
I think Pennsylvania is solidly in Kerry's column, and Ohio is all but there as well. Bush is polling a consistent 47 in Ohio, and Nader is not on the ballot. Florida is truly up in the air at this point, but it probably doesn't matter.
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